A polarisation in homeownership sentiment is observed among Australians without ownership of their primary residence, according to new research from Agile Market Intelligence’s Consumer Pulse survey (October to December 2025). While 17% now plan to buy within the next 12 months (up from 16% in Q3), those completely abandoning homeownership dreams have also grown to 36% (up from 30%).
Key stats you need to know
- 17% of non-homeowners are planning to purchase in the next 12 months, up +1 percentage point from Q2; while those saying, “I do not want to buy a home,” increased +6 percentage points to 36%.
- Australians aged 55+ showed the sharpest shift toward rejection, with 69% now ruling out homeownership entirely, up 7 percentage points from 62% in Q3.
- NSW, VIC, QLD and WA grew their intent to buy (from 1% to 3%), while simultaneously growing their rejection rates (between 2% to 7%), demonstrating the market’s split trajectory.
Middle ground is disappearing as Australians move to extremes
- Non-homeowners who want to buy but face barriers have dropped to a combined 48% (-6 percentage points from Q3).
- The shrinking of the wait-and-see middle ground was also observed across different states, and different age groups.
- Young Australians are leading the charge, having the highest (23%) intent to purchase within the next 12 months, while the 55+ have the highest rejection rate (69%).
Australians are no longer staying in the middle ground. Instead, they are either finding pathways to purchase or accepting that homeownership is unattainable. The 6% drop in those wanting but unable to buy represents a significant quarterly shift in sentiment since tracking began.
"Households who spent time saying, ‘I want to buy but can’t,’ seem to be making definitive choices. Some are finding ways forward, and others are walking away entirely," said Michael Johnson, Director of Agile Market Intelligence.
Older Australians are cementing long-term renter status
- Among Australians aged 55+, almost 7 in 10 (69%) now say they do not plan to buy a home.
- Hope is not entirely lost for the 55+, as those who intend to purchase in the next 12 months, albeit a minority, almost doubled from 5% in Q3 to 9% in Q4.
- Young Australians aged 18-34 maintained relatively stable buying intent (up 23% in Q4), but rejection rates also increased by 3%.
The generational divide in homeownership intent has arrived. Older Australians are making peace with permanent renting at an accelerating rate. The 7 percentage point increase represents the fastest shift across any demographic. The pattern suggests a reallocation of financial priorities, as concerns about financial readiness also declined.
“The 55+ cohort isn’t waiting for market conditions to improve, and seems to have closed the door on homeownership. Interestingly, the 35-54 is the only age group that has shrunk its homeownership intent, even if it’s slight. They’re the ones who are in the wait-and-see.” Michael Johnson said.
Polarisation in home ownership plans seen nationwide
- Victoria recorded the greatest buying intent at 22%, and Queensland showed the highest rise in intent (up 3% points).
- NSW’s buying intent rose from 16% to 17%, while rejection grew from 27% to 30%.
- South Australia experienced the sharpest deterioration, with rejection surging 17 percentage points from 31% to 48%.
The state-level data reveals that Victoria and NSW are generating both increased buying intent and increased rejection in parallel, suggesting these markets are efficiently sorting households into viable buyers and permanent renters. However, South Australia’s 17% surge in rejection represents a collapse in housing market confidence, potentially driven by economic uncertainty or a faster decline in affordability relative to local wages.
“South Australia’s numbers are alarming, as something fundamental has shifted there. VIC and NSW are polarising between intent and rejection. Queensland is the outlier, showing a rise in intent and keeping the rejection rate stable.” Michael Johnson noted.
About the research
This article is based on findings from Agile Market Intelligence’s Consumer Pulse survey, conducted from 1 July to 15 December 2025. The data presented are for 3,333 non-homeowners among the 7,834 Australian consumers surveyed. Agile looked at patterns across age groups and states.
The Consumer Pulse is a monthly tracker of over 1,500 Australian consumers developed by Agile Market Intelligence to monitor consumer sentiment, financial stress, and behavioural shifts across key household segments. The survey provides a real-time view of financial wellbeing in Australia, segmented by debt status and home ownership.
